The blog has been quite non existent of late but I have been spurred into writing again but the now well documented comments by Don Touhig.
Firstly let me say I totally agree with the Islwyn MP’s comments. I genuinely do feel as if Plaid has been running rings around Labour. Whilst I do not necessarily believe that national issues always have a direct impact on council elections I do think they played a bigger role this May than normal. When you look at the kicking Labour received compared to how Plaid improved its number of seats and now finds itself in the ruling party of a number of councils there is clearly a difference in how the general public views the coalition partners.
The view of the unnamed senior Labour MP in today’s Western Mail is entirely correct. Don Touhig’s outburst only helps Plaid. It once again highlights the internal split between the Labour party in Westminster and Cardiff Bay whilst publicly voices the view held by many Labour politicians that they are being exploited at the Assembly by Plaid.
The press coverage of Plaid Ministers, the impact they have had on their portfolios and the general consensus that the party is succeeding in Government is entirely in contrast with how people view Labour. Labour blogger, Normal Mouth notes that Labour are in control of the high end of Ministerial positions. That is a matter of opinion. However, I would argue that if you are not imposing yourself on those positions and delivering then they are holding you back. Plaid Ministers have arguably had the hardest year but have emerged as the most successful. Labour has placed one of their biggest hitters in Carwyn with a portfolio that no one knows what he is responsible for. With the exception of Edwina Hart Labour Ministers have by and large been non existent and ineffective.
Without the public backing then there is no room to manoeuvre. Just look at the amount of well publicised back downs Gordon Brown has been forced into. Plaid is setting the agenda in the media which in turn has let them set the agenda at a Government level. A view echoed by Adam Price who writes in his essay for the Western Mail that Plaid was “the catalyst and today the driving force behind the One Wales Government.”
Firstly let me say I totally agree with the Islwyn MP’s comments. I genuinely do feel as if Plaid has been running rings around Labour. Whilst I do not necessarily believe that national issues always have a direct impact on council elections I do think they played a bigger role this May than normal. When you look at the kicking Labour received compared to how Plaid improved its number of seats and now finds itself in the ruling party of a number of councils there is clearly a difference in how the general public views the coalition partners.
The view of the unnamed senior Labour MP in today’s Western Mail is entirely correct. Don Touhig’s outburst only helps Plaid. It once again highlights the internal split between the Labour party in Westminster and Cardiff Bay whilst publicly voices the view held by many Labour politicians that they are being exploited at the Assembly by Plaid.
The press coverage of Plaid Ministers, the impact they have had on their portfolios and the general consensus that the party is succeeding in Government is entirely in contrast with how people view Labour. Labour blogger, Normal Mouth notes that Labour are in control of the high end of Ministerial positions. That is a matter of opinion. However, I would argue that if you are not imposing yourself on those positions and delivering then they are holding you back. Plaid Ministers have arguably had the hardest year but have emerged as the most successful. Labour has placed one of their biggest hitters in Carwyn with a portfolio that no one knows what he is responsible for. With the exception of Edwina Hart Labour Ministers have by and large been non existent and ineffective.
Without the public backing then there is no room to manoeuvre. Just look at the amount of well publicised back downs Gordon Brown has been forced into. Plaid is setting the agenda in the media which in turn has let them set the agenda at a Government level. A view echoed by Adam Price who writes in his essay for the Western Mail that Plaid was “the catalyst and today the driving force behind the One Wales Government.”
12 comments:
When you look at the kicking Labour received compared to how Plaid improved its number of seats and now finds itself in the ruling party of a number of councils there is clearly a difference in how the general public views the coalition partners.
That presupposes that people were voting on the basis of their views of the two parties' performance in the Assembly.
I think it far more likely that they were making their views known about Gordon Brown, 10p, economic ill-winds etc, etc, etc.
I fully agree. But I use it to show that whilst Labour are suffering Plaid have maintained and in cases increased their popularity. Whilst it is difficult to maybe judge Labour here it is possible to judge Plaid.
But that again presupposes that people are making a positive decision to vote for Plaid, which in turn assumes that people have seen and been impressed by their performance as part of the WAG.
I think it far more likely that people are heartily fed up with Labour and where they adjudge Plaid to be the best placed to defeat a Labour candidate have plumped for them.
Indeed, the pattern of voting throughout Wales would appear to bear this out to an extent. I don't say it was entirely a protest vote thing, but I suspect it was largely so.
I think you are being very optimistic if you think other parties are only gaining ground because of a protest vote. Certainly there will be an element of that but I think it’s far more with voters from Labour making an active choice to invest in another parties.
I don't say you can make the presumption that people are making a positive decision to vote plaid based on being impressed with them as a part of Government (although I think that has played a part). What I do say is that people have not taken a negative presumption to vote against them. After a year in Government Plaid remain popular (and increasingly so on the council results).
As already stated I do not think council elections really reflect a wider perception but I do think the wider perception (based on the media for instance) shows that Plaid has been winning the internal battle. The most telling fact however is that Labour politicians are willing to come out and admit to their frustrations. This internal battle for Labour only highlights how well Plaid is doing.
You say protest voting is an element of it. So do I. We merely disagree about the magnitude.
But please don't confuse what I'm saying with a suggestion that Labour can or will regain all lost ground when they become less toxic than at present. We live in more pluralistic times now; I've said so on many occasions on my blog.
The most telling fact however is that Labour politicians are willing to come out and admit to their frustrations. This internal battle for Labour only highlights how well Plaid is doing.
We only have one such person willing to put their name to this feeling, so let's not get carried away. And as I argue on my blog the complaint is about the war of presentation (what Plaid used to condemn as "empty spin" when they weren't very good at it). I see little to indicate that the One Wales Government is other than a decent, solid social democratic administration implementing all sorts of things that most Labour Party people would be entirely comfortable with if done as part of a majority administration.
"But please don't confuse what I'm saying with a suggestion that Labour can or will regain all lost ground when they become less toxic than at present."
I don't think for a second you’re suggesting that. Your too informed a blogger to be that naive. I think you may have reached a point where only an unpopular Tory Government at Westminster will allow Labour to regain their ground. At the very least a change of leadership.
"I see little to indicate that the One Wales Government is other than a decent, solid social democratic administration implementing all sorts of things that most Labour Party people would be entirely comfortable with if done as part of a majority administration."
I agree with that. From my point of view I would say that the current perception is that it is a good, stable and effective administration and whilst Labour supporters will be comfortable with it I think it is Plaid that appears to be driving it. And call me cynical but perception is everything in politics.
"We only have one such person willing to put their name to this feeling"
There was also Brian Clements (hardly a big hitter) but yet another voice trickling away. Don Touhig speaks for a very distinctive group within the Labour party. The voices may (for now) be a minority but they are vocal and I wouldn't be surprise if they made a few more comments.
Here's a possible ironic take on things. I don't necessarily agree with it, but it is one interpretation:
"Plaid are indeed driving the coalition. But the vision they are driving with is ultimately a Labour one in substance. To make itself electable, Plaid has transformed itself from a blood-and-soil nationalist movement into a modern social democratic party. It has done this so well that presently, with Labour exhausted from a period of incumbency Plaid is currently better placed to drive things forward."
Plaid is in an interesting position - it is poised to inherit the Labour mantle in Wales as a party that is genuinely concerned to maintain the NHS and other public services (Labour's track record on UK level means they can't be trusted wholeheartedly on this).
However Plaid also has to avoid losing its core vote (as Labour has done so spectacularly). This core vote is not "blood and soil" nationalist, an offensive term designed to stoke the flames, but the hardcore vote in Welsh-speaking communities that is progressive on many social issues as well as being concerned about the language.
This core vote has been tested by the Byd decision and Plaid's perceived lack of commitment to language-based politics. I happen to think the concern is misplaced - Plaid is the only party committed to delivering on the Welsh language and cultural matters but it does need to mend fences.
If it can maintain its core and take on the mantle of "Welsh Labour" - as it did to an extent in 1999 when Labour was at the height of its Blairite popularity - then it can be the biggest party in 2011.
I wasn't trying to stoke any flames, but I was being indelicate. I therefore withdraw the term and offer my apologies.
Did you know Christopher Glamorganshire? What's the gossip?
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics-news/2008/07/09/sacked-blogger-s-taking-case-to-tribunal-91466-21308104/
Anon,
If the Glamorganshire comment is aimed at me no sorry I don't. I was a reader of the blog but can't say I know the ins and outs of the issue. Maybe someone else can enlighten us.
Ardibeltza,
I think thats an excellent analysis of the situation. I too agree that the concern is misplaced as I think the decision with the establishment of the Welsh Newspaper was the correct one and will benifit welsh language press in the long term. It has ensured there isnt a very public failure (due to the way print news is loosing readers) and also invested the money in an onlie version. I also agree that there is still that perception and it is important that Plaid ensure they keep the core vote onboard.
To be honest, the Byd issue only mattered to the 700 people who subscribed to the paper. The rest have got noright to complain as they didn't put their money where their mouths were.
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